I've decided that it's time to step a little outside my area of expertise, as I've spotted some trends which I believe will affect the retail landscape over the next twenty years.
In short: it's going to be way different.
The Rise of Online Shopping
Online shopping has been taking chunks out of the retail market for a few years, now. Shipping times are dropping, and it has become convenient to order many of the things we need online. This trend is only going to continue. Shopping malls will be a thing of the past, save for so-called mini malls and perhaps in rural locations. Most of the things that we do not need on a daily basis will only be available online. The main streets of cities and towns will be largely abandoned and will ultimately give over to new residential developments.
What Does it Mean?
For the average consumer, it means much less choice. As we have seen, the Internet ecosystem favours large, de-facto monopolies--Google, Facebook, Amazon, and so on--and that trend will only continue. I can clearly see where, in twenty years' time, almost all of your online transactions will be with a single provider, because there will be only one, unless current laws are amended and enforced. Further, that single provider will know everything about you, including probably your health records, and will be able to tailor its advertising directly to your tastes. Or modify your tastes by offering slightly different products than you are used to. All of these transactions will probably be by way of a credit card (the lack of which, even today, brands one as a non-person), and that card will probably be hacked several times per year. I say this because, through all of human history, the pace of technology has outstripped our ability to control or deploy it helpfully. The Internet has several basic flaws which cannot easily be repaired at this point, and your expectations of online privacy in the future will be zero. Retail stores will be limited to specialty shops in larger cities, convenience and grocery stores. There may be a few general-type stores in rural areas.
The Pandemic Effect
The current COVID-19 pandemic, courtesy yet again of Asia's filthy wildlife markets, is going to effect some permanent changes, also--some of them probably for the better; many of them for the worse. Making a comeback will be Consumers Distributing-type stores, where one orders and is served from a wicket. Less mingling, goes the theory. Already some stores have implemented this. This business model was largely de rigeur in the 1930s and 1940s. It's coming back, to stay.
In grocery stores, once supplies become available, disposable gloves will be offered at the door. That will stop probably 70-80 percent of infections, right there. Possibly even face masks. This will be permanent.
Another innovation
This pandemic effect will be exacerbated by its increasing recurrence. In the past, a pandemic was largely allowed to run its course. But COVID-19 is too deadly; and once out among the general population, it will be difficult to eradicate. Future pandemics are likely to be just as deadly, and we're all going to have to get used to this. The promise of a vaccine is not as helpful as it sounds, as so many people have latched onto the anti-vax movement as onto astrology--and astrology is based more on reality.
Other changes are coming to the business world in general. Many more people will be working from home in the near-future; and if I had any money, I'd be investing in providers of those services (Citrix, FortiClient, etc.). We've probably nearly hit Peak Office. There will be far fewer construction cranes downtown, for the foreseeable future.
One Last Thought:
Paper money and coins will start disappearing within the next 10 years. That's a major freedom, and we need to fight for it.
Why Think About This Now?
Because by the time it happens, you won't be able to do anything about it. I'm not looking forward to having to order most of my stuff from Amazon, and being chided for buying items which conflict with my health records, and being reminded to do the things I was going to do anyway, for my health, and wearing an activity monitor for insurance purposes. Every transaction that I make will be tracked and probably scrutinized--probably by Amazon, too.
Get ready for it. It ain't pretty; and it's a whole lot less free--but it's coming.
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