Climate Change in Ottawa: 30-Year Report

I have lived in the Ottawa region for 34 years, now. I have always had more than a passing interest in the weather and meteorology. Let's combine the two, and see what comes out.

1. It's Getting Warmer

Over 30 years, the weather in Ottawa has gradually grown warmer, especially in Winter.

Anecdotal Evidence:
In the Eighties, temperatures frequently ventured down into the minus-thirties. News stories abounded, showing steam plumes off of every building, and people freezing through daytime highs in the mid-minus-twenties.

Now? It doesn't happen. Oh, once every few years, you'll get a low temperature in the minus-thirty range; but only one, and only once per winter. Generally, the lowest the temperature gets nowadays, in an average winter, is about -26.

Direct Evidence:
If you graph the daily temperature records for the year, against the dates they were set, a remarkable pattern emerges: again, especially in Winter, the low-temperature records were generally set years ago--decades ago--while the high-temperature records have been set in the past few years. It's really quite striking, when viewed in this way, and delivers an unambiguous argument that the climate is warming.

The Rideau Canal: In the eighties, it often opened in late-December; and skating generally lasted into mid-March. In recent years, it almost never opens before mid-January, almost always closes by late February; and this year, for the first time, not all sections of the Canal were opened. It's a trend.

Winterlude: Ottawa's famous winter festival is at risk of busting. In the past, the carnival was a 10-day event in mid-January. But it kept running into the January thaw. So they broke it up into three weekends, and ran it mid-February. Problem is, in recent years, there's often a meltdown mid-event. Our winters eventually will become too inconsistent to hold a major winter carnival, at all. I expect that to happen in the next 20-30 years. I also expect still to be talking about it at that point.

2. Winters are Getting Shorter

That's a process that seems to have accelerated somewhat in recent years.

I can only offer anecdotal evidence for this one. In the eighties, winter was usually well underway by mid-December. The snow often began falling in early November. I remember one winter, in the early nineties, when we didn't get a major snowfall, and the Canal didn't freeze, until late November.

Contrast that with today, when the Canal is often still unfrozen into mid-December; and often the first major snowfall now occurs in that month, too.

Yep; it's changing. Only an idiot can still murmur about natural processes, at this point.

Have a warm one,

-Bill